Politics
Four Reasons Conflict Keeps Recurring in Ethiopia
The Conversation · 4 hours ago · Read the Full Story on The Conversation
AI SUMMARY
Research on constitutional design and conflict highlights four interconnected explanations for why sustainable peace remains difficult to achieve in Ethiopia.
- Ethiopia has experienced recurrent conflicts for over five decades, including civil wars and ongoing clashes in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia.
- The foundations of the Ethiopian state remain contested due to disagreements over successive political and constitutional arrangements.
- The 1995 constitution restructured the country as an ethnolinguistic federation, granting nations the right to self-determination and secession, which remains a source of division.
- Ceasefires are frequently mistaken for political settlements, leaving root causes, disputed territories, and accountability unaddressed.
- The 2022 Pretoria agreement stopped major hostilities between the federal government and the TPLF, but major political questions and Eritrean force presence remained unresolved.
- The TPLF suffered internal fragmentation and lost its legal party status in 2025, further complicating the implementation of peace commitments.
- Armed force continues to be historically utilized as a route to political power in Ethiopia when peaceful political competition lacks confidence.
- Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration has faced accusations of rights abuses and personalized authority, making negotiated settlements harder to achieve.
- Regional rivalries and foreign interventions, including former ties and subsequent tensions with Eritrea, complicate Ethiopia's domestic and international stability.
- Ethiopia's geopolitical ambitions for Red Sea access and strained relations with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam add external pressures.
- Lasting peace requires Ethiopians to reach consensus on power sharing and federal-regional relations, alongside diplomacy built on sovereignty and non-interference with neighbours.
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