Security
Ethiopia’s New Opposition Alliance Faces an Old Pattern of Civil Conflict
Al Jazeera · 12 hours ago · Read the Full Story on Al Jazeera
AI SUMMARY
A newly formed armed alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed confronts deep-seated political divisions, strategic hurdles, and the risk of internal fragmentation.
- The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival was announced on September 20 after several months of coordination meetings.
- The alliance brings together the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, and four movements from the Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions.
- The declared objective of the alliance is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish an inclusive transition.
- TPLF forces allied with the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front advanced into several districts in Zone 2 following the formation.
- Member organizations hold competing territorial claims, notably between Fano and the TPLF over western Tigray.
- Eritrea is accused by Addis Ababa of backing the alliance, adding external geopolitical risks to the conflict.
- Three primary paths are considered possible for the conflict: prolonged uneven fighting, alliance fragmentation, or a dangerous cascade of federal military defections.
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