Economy
Ethiopia’s GDP Rebase: A Bigger Economy, But Familiar Challenges
Wazema · yesterday · Read the Full Story on Wazema
AI SUMMARY
Newly rebased national accounts show Ethiopia’s economy is substantially larger than previously estimated, though core challenges like household purchasing power and debt repayment remain unresolved.
- Ministry of National Strategy announced the rebasing on 4 November, replacing the 2015/16 base year with 2024/25.
- The rebasing raised estimated nominal GDP for 2024/25 by 59%, increasing it from Birr 15.09 trillion to Birr 24.03 trillion, or approximately $201 billion.
- The revision expands coverage of informal mining, small manufacturing businesses, ride-hailing services, financial technology, interest-free banking, and public enterprises.
- For 2025/26, services account for 33.8% of GDP, industry for 31.8%, and agriculture for 31.4%.
- In 2024/25, manufacturing's share rose from 4.2% to 6.9%, mining and quarrying increased from 2.7% to 5.7%, transport and storage rose from 3.2% to 7.7%, and construction fell from 20.2% to 15%.
- Gross capital formation rose from 20.1% to 35.3% of GDP in 2024/25, while private consumption's share fell from 80.9% to 64.4%.
- The larger GDP denominator illustrates a potential debt-to-GDP ratio decline from approximately 45% to around 25%.
- Revenue collected in 2025/26 is approximately Birr 1.5 trillion, representing about 4.8% of rebased GDP compared to roughly 8% under previous estimates.
- Real GDP growth for 2025/26 is projected at 7.7%, alongside nominal growth of 31.9%, taking GDP to Birr 31.97 trillion.
Related
Ministry of Revenues Drafts Directive to Correct Tax Notice Errors
TIKVAH Ethiopia · 6 hours ago
NBE's New Liquidity Rules Open Path Towards Islamic Treasury
BirrMetrics · 7 hours ago
NBE to Auction 140 Million US Dollars as Bank Demand
BirrMetrics · 7 hours ago
Türkiye Targets $2 Billion from COP31 as Ethiopia Prepares for COP32
BirrMetrics · 8 hours ago