Security
How did the TPLF retreat so quickly? What might happen next?
BBC · 3 hours ago · Read the Full Story on BBC
AI SUMMARY
Political and military analysts discuss the internal divisions and strategic factors behind the rapid withdrawal of TPLF forces from most of the Tigray region.
- TPLF forces withdrew from Mekelle and most areas of the Tigray region within ten days after conflict reignited on October 3.
- Former TPLF official Bisrat Amare attributes the rapid retreat to internal disintegration, political division, and a split in the regional armed forces that led to the creation of the anti-TPLF 'Tigray Peace Force.'
- Analyst Getiye Tirfe states that the TPLF has failed due to its inability to sustain a war, leadership fragmentation, loss of public support, and lack of international diplomatic backing.
- Former military officer Dereje Hawas notes that the rapid withdrawal could be a tactical decision, a result of internal collapse, or a total defeat, heavily influenced by factions led by figures like Getachew Reda and General Tsadkan Gebretensae.
- The federal government has established a caretaker administration in Tigray and declared victory, while the TPLF maintains it will continue the fight.
- Analysts warn that deepening internal rifts in Tigray and potential involvement by external actors like Eritrea risk pulling the two countries into a wider regional conflict.
- Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties, with Ethiopia notifying the UN Security Council that it is acting in self-defense against invasion, a claim denied by Eritrea.
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