Diplomacy
A New Geopolitical Strategy for the Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb
Borkena · 3 weeks ago · Read the Full Story on Borkena
AI SUMMARY
Analyst Abdi Ali Barkad argues that the international community must adopt a new geopolitical strategy in the Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb by recognizing stable entities like Somaliland and South Yemen.
- The Middle East and the Horn of Africa are experiencing severe geopolitical instability, driven by proxy conflicts, non-state armed actors, and threats to maritime routes.
- Iran's growing influence and its backing of armed groups like the Houthis in Yemen and Al-Shabaab in Somalia directly threaten global supply chains and shipping lanes.
- Disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital shipping chokepoint, increase transport costs and energy prices, forcing ships to bypass the region via the Cape of Good Hope.
- Existing policies centered solely on military interventions and short-term political compromises have failed to yield lasting security.
- A proposed long-term strategy suggests partnering with stable, accountable local institutions on both sides of the Gulf of Aden to build a resilient security framework.
- The Republic of Somaliland has maintained relative stability, functioning institutions, and security along its strategic coastline and Berbera port since declaring independence in 1991.
- A peaceful, internationally supervised political process to determine the future status of South Yemen could establish a stable partner controlling the critical port of Aden.
- Global powers including the United States, EU, India, UAE, and Saudi Arabia are urged to shift from reactive crisis management toward supporting stable, representative political structures.
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