Economy

IMF to Review Implementation Schedule for Ethiopia’s New Economic Forecasting Model

AI SUMMARY

The IMF plans to discuss the implementation timeline for Ethiopia’s new macroeconomic forecasting model with government authorities.

The IMF and Ethiopian authorities plan to discuss the implementation timeline for the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM).
The government requested the CAEM framework in October 2024 to improve fiscal and macroeconomic projections.
The initial scoping mission for the project took place in May 2025 across the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Planning and Development, and the National Bank of Ethiopia.
Data gaps, particularly the annual availability of national accounts and production data, remain a constraint to the forecasting project.
The project aims to link CAEM with the IMF's Debt Dynamics Tool to evaluate how economic developments influence public debt trajectories.
Ethiopia has received USD 2.647 billion in disbursements under its USD 3.4 billion ECF loan program with the IMF.
The IMF is scheduled to conduct the program's sixth review in November, with Executive Board approval anticipated in early 2027.