Agriculture
El Niño Threatens Ethiopia Meher Harvest Amid 50 Percent Deficit
Borkena · last week · Read the Full Story on Borkena
AI SUMMARY
A worsening El Niño climate cycle and severe rainfall deficits threaten Ethiopia's primary Meher harvest, raising acute food security concerns across agricultural and pastoral regions.
- Rainfall levels across main farming and pastoral belts in Ethiopia have dropped over 50 percent below historic averages due to a worsening El Niño climate cycle.
- The severe moisture deficit threatens the Meher harvest, which yields over 85 percent of the national grain supply.
- The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) reported in its August 2026 to January 2027 update that the June-to-September Kiremt rainy season recorded some of the lowest precipitation levels on record.
- Drought conditions across northern, central, and eastern agricultural areas have stalled crop development and forced repeated replanting.
- Local assessments in eastern Tigray, the Tekeze River basin, and East and West Hararghe detail widespread crop damage and total germination failures in many districts.
- Field checks reveal widespread wilting in maize and severe stunting in sorghum with minimal prospect for recovery.
- In Afar and the Great Rift Valley, dried-up water points and depleted pastures have caused livestock emaciation, mortality, and reduced milk production.
- Food security analysts warn that the depressed harvest outlook will drive acute food insecurity between late 2026 and early 2027.
- Reduced seasonal agricultural labor demand and elevated food commodity prices threaten to push drought-impacted areas into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions.
- Meteorologists predict the strengthening El Niño could bring an early onset of Deyr/Hageya rains to southern pastoral areas, carrying a risk of localized flash flooding.
- Agricultural authorities and international humanitarian partners are calling for expanded emergency assistance, farm inputs, and safety-net deployments.
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