Economy
Could conflict in Ethiopia threaten coffee?
Food Navigator · 4 hours ago · Read the Full Story on Food Navigator
AI SUMMARY
Despite renewed conflict in northern Ethiopia, the country's major coffee-producing regions and export routes remain distant from the fighting, with analysts predicting minimal impact on global coffee trade.
- Renewed conflict erupted in September involving Ethiopia’s government and a coalition including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front across Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions.
- The current unrest is linked to the 2020-2022 Tigray civil war.
- Ethiopia produces 4.4% of global coffee output and 7.7% of the world's Arabica production specifically.
- Roughly 25 to 30 percent of Ethiopia's coffee is consumed locally.
- Ethiopia is Africa’s largest coffee producer and the fifth largest producer globally according to the USDA.
- For the 2026/27 crop year, Expana estimates Ethiopia will produce 9.5 million bags of coffee, exporting around 6.7 million bags.
- Global coffee production in 2026/27 is forecast at 193 million bags, with consumption forecast at 184 million bags.
- Ethiopia's coffee-producing regions in the south are geographically distant from the northern conflict zones.
- Data from Expana and the International Coffee Organisation show the previous Tigray war caused minimal disruption to coffee exports.
- Landlocked Ethiopia primarily exports coffee through neighbouring Djibouti via road and rail routes that currently remain far from potential conflict.
- Analysts from Expana and Rabobank state that disruptions to global coffee production and prices are likely to be minimal if the conflict stays in the north.
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