Security
How the Tigray War in Ethiopia Could Spread Across the Horn of Africa
Deutsche Welle · 2 days ago · Read the Full Story on Deutsche Welle
AI SUMMARY
The renewed conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region threatens to spark a broader regional war involving Eritrea, Sudan, and shifting alliances across the Horn of Africa.
- Tigrayan forces launched a major offensive on September 23, with fighting also reported in Afar and Amhara.
- The renewed fighting threatens the fragile peace established by the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement.
- British journalist and Horn of Africa expert Martin Plaut warns that conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia could involve Sudanese forces and drag the region into war.
- ACLED senior analyst Jalale Getachew Birru states that the conflict is connected to a broader pattern of instability across the Horn of Africa.
- African Union Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf warned that new political and military alliances risk reversing progress made since 2020.
- The TPLF recently joined six other Ethiopian armed groups in an alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
- Fighting in the Afar region threatens the main transport corridor linking landlocked Ethiopia to Djibouti.
- Plaut argues that Ethiopia and Eritrea are already indirectly involved on opposing sides of Sudan's civil war between the SAF and RSF.
- Strategic locations like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait link the Horn of Africa's stability to international shipping and regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
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